Now that I have my work and living situations stabilized, I actually have time to revive my blog!
Well where do we begin? It was certainly a productive off-season. I'll start by taking a quick look back at the trades and signings that Dombrowski and Co. pulled off:
10/29/07 Acquired SS Edgar Renteria from the Atlanta Braves in exchange for RHP Jair Jurrjens and OF Gorkys Hernandez.
Many of us over at motownsports (MTS) were thinking that Renteria would be a good option for the Tigers...more because the Braves would be likely to move him with the emergence of Kelly Johnson and Yunel Escobar as solid young middle infield options. It was also an unknown as to whether or not the Braves would try to sell off some expensive players to free up some cap space to re-sign Andruw Jones.
Edgar is by no means a long term shortstop option for the Tigers unless there are several injuries/trades made. He'll be 32 this year, but boasts a respectable career batting average (.291) and OBP (.349). He's a pretty solid offensive player across the board--he'll rack up some doubles, hits the occasional homerun, can draw walks regularly, will score you some runs, and has a good history of staying healthy (hasnt had less than 493 ABs in any of his 11 full seasons at the MLB level). He's a bit like Placido Polanco if Polanco struck out more and had a bit more power.
The real issue with Renteria is his fielding. He's not necessarily a bad shortstop, but he's a guy who doesnt have a ton of range. In fact, his range factors are typically lower than what Carlos Guillen has had the last several years. Guillens arm and health became quite a bit of a concern last year, and with the organization not able to find a suitable candidate to take over the first base slot vacated by free agent Sean Casey, it wasnt a difficult decision to move Guillen to first. It surprised me that it was actually easier to find a top caliber shortstop than it was to find a first baseman, but thats the situation that occurred. I wouldnt have minded seeing Dombrowski wait a little while and haggle a bit more over the cost of Renteria and to see if other first baseman would become available. Nick Swisher going to the White Sox a few weeks ago could have been a good option for us at first base, and didnt cost the Sox as much as Renteria cost us.
Now, the hard part of trade analysis.....looking at the players we lost in the deal.
I think most Tiger fans were impressed and enthusiastic about the arrival and performance of Jair Jurrjens once he was called up to Detroit. He proved to be at least reasonably effective in most of his appearances, although he got beat up a little bit in his last few appearances before the trade--which skewed his Tiger statistics to look less effective than they actually were. The general assumption among scouts and fans seemed to be that Jurrjens would probably cap out as a #3 or #4 starter for a major league club, so we certainly did give away a guy who could have been a long term member of our rotation. With Rick Porcello drafted and signed, young Verlander and Bonderman, and (at the time) Andrew Miller already in the system, Jurrjens as a middle of the rotation guy became expendable. Kind of unfortunate because he was very likable, and he quickly won over Tiger fans by appearing confident on the mound....something Tiger fans had longed for all summer after watching Jeremy Bonderman have meltdown after meltdown. Jurrjens will be missed, but soon forgotten, especially after the real blockbuster deal went down a while later.
As for Gorkys Hernandez...another guy that a lot of Tiger fans were interested in following. Basically at this point he's just a singles hitter with tremendous speed and base stealing ability. With Curtis Granderson quickly developing into more of a power hitter, Gorkys was being looked at as a future lead-off man. But at 20 years old as of right now, he's still a long ways away and has a lot of work to do before he even gets to the big leagues, let alone cements himself as a leadoff man and starter. The Renteria for Jurrjens/Hernandez trade was slightly unpopular because of the two men we gave up and the interest surrounding them, but it was a move that puts the Tigers in a better position to be successful in the short term, so I'd say that this is a pretty fair deal across the board. Both teams traded from their surplus and acquired players at positions they needed.
11/12/07 Acquired OF Jacque Jones from the Chicago Cubs in exchange for INF Omar Infante.
Honestly, this is the one move that has been made that really has me scratching my head. Infante failed to become an every day player for the Tigers (not all his fault considering that his competition was Placido Polanco and Carlos Guillen--two all-stars.) The main problem with Infante is that he is not good enough defensively to be a real option off of the bench. With Ramon Santiago being a bit more versatile, and with the Tigers farm system becoming more and more loaded with middle infielders (Hollimon, Sizemore, Giarratano, Dlugach, Iorg, among others), moving Infante was going to be a necessary move sooner or later.
The thing that has me confused is how Jacque Jones was going to fit into the equation. The obvious reason he was brought in is because he's a left handed hitter...something the Tigers lost when they decided to let Sean Casey go into free agency. With the power hitting Marcus Thames, the surprisingly effective and consistent Ryan Raburn, and with Cameron Maybin not too far out of the picture, the addition of Jones seemed to do more to create a log jam rather than address a real need. If we could have gotten a league-average relief pitcher for Infante, I would have much rather seen us take that route.
We already have one outfielder who cant hit lefties (Granderson) so the addition of another one in Jacque Jones doesnt make sense to me. Jones is a slightly below average outfielder--good speed and some occasional power, but doesnt have a consistent tendency to get on base at a high rate and his defense is suspect at times. If we had reason to believe that we were getting the 2002 or 2003 version of Jacque Jones, it might be a little more exciting. The last 4 years he has done more to emulate Craig Monroe than former teammate Torii Hunter. We'll see how this plays out, but I suspect it'll be another year of us Tiger fans whining that an inferior player is taking at bats away from Thames and Raburn.
11/30/07 Re-signed LHP Kenny Rogers to a one-year contract; Signed RHP Francisco Cruceta to a one-year contract; Designated INF Chris Shelton and OF Timo Perez for assignment.
Quite a bit going on here in one day. The re-signing of Kenny Rogers is probably a good thing, even if he ends up having another injury plagued year. Kenny has been a fan favorite and a nice veteran presence for the Tigers since day 1...and he made it known that he wants to be a Tiger. We gave him a fair one-year contract with a likely understanding that he could be around for 2009 if stays healthy and can still be effective. Jurrjens was a likely candidate for the 5th spot in the rotation in 2008, but since he was included in the Renteria deal, the rotation suddenly began to look shaky. Rogers provides a low-cost, high-reward scenario with this deal. Should he not be healthy this year, then it shouldnt be a problem to put him on the shelf and look into the farm system or trade block to get a short term replacement. With Zach Miner and Yorman Bazardo stepping up nicely, they could also be spot start/#5 guys for us without risking too much of the teams potential success.
I'm still learning about Cruceta, but he follows suit in a long line of Dombrowski signings that are low-risk/high-reward. Several people at MTS seem fairly excited, much in the same way that they were about the acquisitions of Yorman Bazardo and Edward Campusano last year. I'll hold judgment until we get to spring training, but if this guy can be a reliable reliever, it might be one of the best moves of the off-season.
Timo was designated for assignment, but eventually re-signed a minor league deal with the Tigers. He'll likely play the same role he did last year...as a 5th/6th OF who stays in the minors until he's needed due to an injury. Gotta say, he impressed the heck out of me last year...I have no problems with him being brought back for another season, even though I think he's overall a AAAA player at best.
Lastly, Chris Shelton finally meets his demise. A week after this, he was traded to the Rangers for Freddy Guzman. I was rooting for ya, Big Red. We still have no idea what happened to his swing. Not being able to put up better numbers than Timo Perez at AAA Toledo = not a long term solution for a major league team at first base or DH. An unfortunate conclusion to what looked like a potential all-star caliber career.
12/4/07 Acquired RHP Denny Bautista from the Colorado Rockies in exchange for RHP Jose Capellan.
When I first read this online, I was kind of confused. Seems basically like a nothing-for-nothing deal. Bautista's big league numbers arent exactly appealing, and I was fairly satisfied with the job that Capellan did for us last year. Apparently Bautista has a big arm and Dombrowski and Co are pretty excited to have been able to grab him. Since they know more about these two guys than I do, I'll sit back and withhold further opinion. I am glad, however, that we're assembling several potential bullpen pitchers well before spring training so that we can evaluate what we have early on rather than relying on what we have and resorting to patchwork trades and signings when those players become ineffective or get injured.
12/5/07 Acquired LHP Dontrelle Willis and 3B Miguel Cabrera from the Florida Marlins in exchange for RHP Burke Badenhop, RHP Eulogio De La Cruz, RHP Dallas Trahern, LHP Andrew Miller, C Mike Rabelo and OF Cameron Maybin.
This is a spit-your-coffee-on-your-computer-screen deal. Granted, we gave up two of the best prospects in all of baseball, but it wasnt like we got guys who werent already perennial all-star players who are even near the middle or end of their prime. The way I see it, we gave up Maybin and Miller--two guys we hoped would be like Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis-- FOR Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis. I wish I could say I care about any of the other players in the deal. Badenhop probably wont amount to much, Cruz reminded me a lot of Franklyn German for some reason, Trahern could have been a nice back of the rotation guy for us, and Rabelo wasnt ever going to be much more than a backup catcher anyway.
If the Renteria deal didnt solidify the fact that the Tigers are playing for a title in the next couple seasons, then this move did. It'll be interesting to see how Cabrera and Willis adjust to the American League. I suspect Cabrera wont be quite as good offensively (although he'll still be an amazing offensive player and he'll have plenty of support around him in the lineup) and I suspect Willis will have a strong year simply because American League hitters are not used to seeing him. Plus he has moved from one spacious park into another. If the weather is cold for the first few weeks in Detroit, Willis could get off to a nice start simply because of these factors, and that could give him the confidence needed to completely bounce back from a disappointing 2007 campaign.
Maybin still has a long way to go before he'll be an effective big league player. Its looking like the Marlins may give him the starting CF job this year, which could either be good for his development, or very bad. He hasnt quite mastered the strike zone of the AA-MLB levels yet, so he'll strike out quite a bit. He also hasnt finished growing yet, so it'll likely be a few years before his power develops. Being stuck in a cheap organization with low fan support, and having to play at a level higher than what he probably should be at against strong divisional opponents could have a very negative effect on his development. Dont get me wrong, I still think he'll become a stud player...but maybe not such a great player that it makes Tiger fans rue this trade.
Miller was interesting for us this past year. He took quite a bit of criticism for not having developed great breaking pitches yet and not having great control. Everyone knows he's still young and still developing into a professional pitcher, but with the way he dominated the low levels of the minor leagues, and the flashes he showed at the MLB level, it was fairly discouraging to see him have so many up and down starts once he broke into the Tigers rotation. He just really didnt seem to be able to take a good outing and then build on it in the next one. High pitch counts and high walk totals were frustrating to watch, especially when he was being looked at as a guy who could come in and breathe a bit of life and energy into a lackadaisical 2007 Detroit Tiger rotation. The Randy Johnson comparison is still there, but between what I mentioned with Maybin and what we saw out of Andrew Miller last year, I'm really feeling pretty good that this trade will work to the Tigers advantage in the long term.
After this move, the farm system is officially gutted, but there's still quite a bit of promise at the lower levels. With the roster the Tigers have now assembled for 2008 and beyond, the lack of near-ready prospects shouldnt be a huge concern.
1/31/08 Released SS Tony Giarratano.
For those of you who missed the news blurb, Tony G. suffered a "significant setback" and the Tigers decided to part ways with him. One of many very talented athletes who just couldn't avoid the injury bug. We all had high hopes for Tony, and he certainly seemed like a good guy, but this latest injury pretty much sealed the deal that he would no longer be looked at as a real option in the future. Best of luck, Tony. Hopefully another team will give him a shot.
2/4/08 Signed OF Curtis Granderson to a five-year contract with a club option for 2013.
Personally, I thought they were a bit premature on this one, but certainly an understandable move. Even if Granderson declines a little bit from last year or cannot continue to make great improvements, it still nets us a young star in the making for a long term and very reasonable contract. Granderson is by far and away one of the most popular and well liked Tigers, so this is a move that shows loyalty and trust in Grandy, and shows the fans that their favorites will be around for a while. Unlike some others, I dont think the quickness of this contract extension had to do with the Cameron Maybin trade.
I've typed quite a bit here, so rather then continue on with this post, I'll address possible lineups/rotations/bullpens and concerns for this season in a new post. Hope this post made up for several months of not writing anything.
Thursday, February 7, 2008
Friday, August 24, 2007
8-24-07 Status Update
I just want to apologize. I am in the process of starting a new job, and the hours and training are taking a bit of a toll on me. I just havent been able to sit down and write out my thoughts about the Tigers lately. Things should get back to normal next week when I'll get into my regular schedule and I'll be able to watch all the games again and analyze what I see. But for the last two weeks, I've just been too wrapped up in other things to write here. So I apologize for that, especially after I had just received a bunch of compliments from people telling me they enjoyed my blog so far and that they were waiting for more. I promise I'll get back to the 2-3 posts per week rate beginning next week.....and with all the moves the Tigers have made, I'll have a lot of catching up to do!
-mt
-mt
Friday, August 10, 2007
8-10-07 No Relief In Sight
Just about the time I thought the team was turning a corner with two wins over the Devil Rays, they go and get dominated by James Shields and Scott Kazmir in the next two games. Shields and Kazmir are both great young pitchers with top of the rotation stuff, but it was still disappointing to see the offense not step up to the challenge.
Like I said in my last post, there isnt much to say at this point. I could go on and on about Leylands management, DD not pulling off a deal to make the team better, certain players not performing well, etc., etc.... But the truth is that the entire team just isnt playing well right now. Starting pitching has surprisingly become a huge problem, the bullpen has been dreadful (although the return of Fernando Rodney has supplied a ray of hope) and the offense has been inconsistent. There's just not much to say. Only 2 or 3 players right now are playing at a high level right now (Granderson, Raburn, Polanco) and most of the others have really struggled in one way or another. I dont know if there's anything that anyone can do or say at this point to turn it around. I think it just has to be played through.
Marcus Thames and Fernando Rodney are back, Zumaya is inching closer to a return, and it seems like Guillen and Sheffield are getting over their nagging injuries. It just hasnt come all together yet. No statistical analysis is going to make that pill any easier to swallow. It's ugly, but we all know that this team has way too much talent to be playing this poorly. They'll bust out of it eventually, and if they dont, then you know DD and Illitch are going to do what they can to right the ship in the off-season
A quick look at the potential free agents leaving the team after this season:
Sean Casey
Vic Darensbourg (Toledo)
Todd Jones
Neifi Perez
Kenny Rogers
and Pudge Rodriguez has a team option.
The only one of those 6 players I'd want to bring back is Pudge--and that's just because we have no depth at catcher and there isnt going to be anything aside from Michael Barrett on the FA market. Rabelo has done a nice job, but I wouldnt get all excited about him as a catcher of the future. He'll be a solid backup for many years.
Casey, while he hasnt been a complete disaster, is nowhere close to giving us the production out of a first baseman that we need in the AL. Unfortunately, there also isnt much in the FA market in terms of first basemen either after this year, so it wouldnt shock me if they bring Casey back on a 1 year deal. Otherwise they'd have to make a deal with someone (Oakland for Dan Johnson?)
Todd Jones is another guy that I can see getting re-signed, but I hope they dont. He's been miserably bad this year, and always puts too many runners on base. He survives on luck and a managers refusal to demote him from his role. Frankly, if Zumaya isnt going to be ready to close next year, then we need to find another arm who can actually come in and shut the door consistently without giving up an unnecessary number of hits and walks. If we re-sign Jones, its gotta be for a different role, in my opinion.
I think the ship has sailed on Kenny Rogers. His two injuries this year have both been rough. Frankly, if we do re-sign him, it'd better be for cheap and as a one year deal. With his age, he's an injury risk, and it also gets increasingly more likely that his abilities will tail off. With the starting pitching concerns we've had down the stretch so far, it's nice to have a veteran like Kenny on the team, even if its just as a clubhouse persona...but I wouldnt spend good money to keep him if there are other options out there that are both better and longer term situations.
Neifi will be gone (and that actually bothers me a bit, because I can see DD and Leyland wanting to go after another overpriced backup infielder rather than just using Ramon Santiago.) I'd be surprised if Neifi plays in the MLB again after failing a drug test for the third time. With that on his resume, and the fact that he may very well go down in history as the worst offensive player ever, is not going to appeal to anyone except perhaps the Giants. Vic Darensbourg is also a guy who I wouldnt mind re-signing just to add depth to the minor league system.
So if all of these contracts come off the books, we should be able to pony up enough cash to get a couple decent impact players. Guillen's defense has become a concern at SS, and there is rumors of him maybe moving to first base. Craig Monroe has been awful in left, but we may have found adequate replacements in Marcus Thames and Ryan Raburn. Other than that, our lineup is pretty solid, although Pudge and Brandon Inge can be very frustrating at times.
I'd look heavily into bulking up our bullpen this offseason with the cash coming off the books--similar to what the Orioles did this past off-season. Get a few guys in there who are legit major league caliber relievers to go with Rodney and Zumaya. Macay McBride and Jose Capellan will likely improve a bit (they've both been shaky at times, but have shown decent promise) and I really dont mind Bobby Seay as the LOOGY. Other than that, Byrdak, Grilli, Jones and Zach Miner should not be a part of our opening day bullpen in 2008 if we hope to both improve and avoid problems similar to what we have run into this year.
That's about all I have to say at this point. I'm starting to sour on the idea of us making the playoffs, just because the Yankees are finally running on all cylinders, and the Indians and Mariners are both going to be tough teams to compete with. Its still doable and, when healthy, the Tigers are easily the best of the bunch...but there have just been a lot of factors working against us lately and the momentum just isnt there. Hopefully the Tigers can pick up the W tomorrow on my birthday, but with Dan Haren on the mound, it's going to take a good effort from our boys.
Lastly, I want to thank everyone who has given me good reviews on my blog so far, both in the comments section and on motownsports. Although the season has taken a frustrating turn, I'm really finding this blog and other discussions among my fellow Tiger fans to really be a lot of fun, even if we go off the deep end and lose our cool on occasion. Thats what makes being a fan fun. So thank you to everyone who has read my blog and given me feedback, I'm glad to see I'm producing some decent quality stuff over here!
Like I said in my last post, there isnt much to say at this point. I could go on and on about Leylands management, DD not pulling off a deal to make the team better, certain players not performing well, etc., etc.... But the truth is that the entire team just isnt playing well right now. Starting pitching has surprisingly become a huge problem, the bullpen has been dreadful (although the return of Fernando Rodney has supplied a ray of hope) and the offense has been inconsistent. There's just not much to say. Only 2 or 3 players right now are playing at a high level right now (Granderson, Raburn, Polanco) and most of the others have really struggled in one way or another. I dont know if there's anything that anyone can do or say at this point to turn it around. I think it just has to be played through.
Marcus Thames and Fernando Rodney are back, Zumaya is inching closer to a return, and it seems like Guillen and Sheffield are getting over their nagging injuries. It just hasnt come all together yet. No statistical analysis is going to make that pill any easier to swallow. It's ugly, but we all know that this team has way too much talent to be playing this poorly. They'll bust out of it eventually, and if they dont, then you know DD and Illitch are going to do what they can to right the ship in the off-season
A quick look at the potential free agents leaving the team after this season:
Sean Casey
Vic Darensbourg (Toledo)
Todd Jones
Neifi Perez
Kenny Rogers
and Pudge Rodriguez has a team option.
The only one of those 6 players I'd want to bring back is Pudge--and that's just because we have no depth at catcher and there isnt going to be anything aside from Michael Barrett on the FA market. Rabelo has done a nice job, but I wouldnt get all excited about him as a catcher of the future. He'll be a solid backup for many years.
Casey, while he hasnt been a complete disaster, is nowhere close to giving us the production out of a first baseman that we need in the AL. Unfortunately, there also isnt much in the FA market in terms of first basemen either after this year, so it wouldnt shock me if they bring Casey back on a 1 year deal. Otherwise they'd have to make a deal with someone (Oakland for Dan Johnson?)
Todd Jones is another guy that I can see getting re-signed, but I hope they dont. He's been miserably bad this year, and always puts too many runners on base. He survives on luck and a managers refusal to demote him from his role. Frankly, if Zumaya isnt going to be ready to close next year, then we need to find another arm who can actually come in and shut the door consistently without giving up an unnecessary number of hits and walks. If we re-sign Jones, its gotta be for a different role, in my opinion.
I think the ship has sailed on Kenny Rogers. His two injuries this year have both been rough. Frankly, if we do re-sign him, it'd better be for cheap and as a one year deal. With his age, he's an injury risk, and it also gets increasingly more likely that his abilities will tail off. With the starting pitching concerns we've had down the stretch so far, it's nice to have a veteran like Kenny on the team, even if its just as a clubhouse persona...but I wouldnt spend good money to keep him if there are other options out there that are both better and longer term situations.
Neifi will be gone (and that actually bothers me a bit, because I can see DD and Leyland wanting to go after another overpriced backup infielder rather than just using Ramon Santiago.) I'd be surprised if Neifi plays in the MLB again after failing a drug test for the third time. With that on his resume, and the fact that he may very well go down in history as the worst offensive player ever, is not going to appeal to anyone except perhaps the Giants. Vic Darensbourg is also a guy who I wouldnt mind re-signing just to add depth to the minor league system.
So if all of these contracts come off the books, we should be able to pony up enough cash to get a couple decent impact players. Guillen's defense has become a concern at SS, and there is rumors of him maybe moving to first base. Craig Monroe has been awful in left, but we may have found adequate replacements in Marcus Thames and Ryan Raburn. Other than that, our lineup is pretty solid, although Pudge and Brandon Inge can be very frustrating at times.
I'd look heavily into bulking up our bullpen this offseason with the cash coming off the books--similar to what the Orioles did this past off-season. Get a few guys in there who are legit major league caliber relievers to go with Rodney and Zumaya. Macay McBride and Jose Capellan will likely improve a bit (they've both been shaky at times, but have shown decent promise) and I really dont mind Bobby Seay as the LOOGY. Other than that, Byrdak, Grilli, Jones and Zach Miner should not be a part of our opening day bullpen in 2008 if we hope to both improve and avoid problems similar to what we have run into this year.
That's about all I have to say at this point. I'm starting to sour on the idea of us making the playoffs, just because the Yankees are finally running on all cylinders, and the Indians and Mariners are both going to be tough teams to compete with. Its still doable and, when healthy, the Tigers are easily the best of the bunch...but there have just been a lot of factors working against us lately and the momentum just isnt there. Hopefully the Tigers can pick up the W tomorrow on my birthday, but with Dan Haren on the mound, it's going to take a good effort from our boys.
Lastly, I want to thank everyone who has given me good reviews on my blog so far, both in the comments section and on motownsports. Although the season has taken a frustrating turn, I'm really finding this blog and other discussions among my fellow Tiger fans to really be a lot of fun, even if we go off the deep end and lose our cool on occasion. Thats what makes being a fan fun. So thank you to everyone who has read my blog and given me feedback, I'm glad to see I'm producing some decent quality stuff over here!
Sunday, August 5, 2007
8-5-07 Is It Over Yet?
Honestly, at this point I'm not even going to bother with any sort of analysis. The team is playing terrible. However, the troubles are slowly shifting from pitching to offense. Sheffield is hurt, Sean Casey took a pitch off his elbow, Guillen is reportedly a bit hobbled, Thames is still on the DL...it seems like it cant possibly get worse.
Now I'm willing to give the team a bit of a break at this point. I still expect them to go out there and play hard, and they are doing so, but there are several factors acting against them. As stated above, half the team is banged up or outright hurt at this time, but the thing that really has begun to irk me is the management decisions made by Jim Leyland. His lineups are not utilizing our weapons properly and he is giving way too much playing time to guys who really dont have much business being on a competitive big league roster.
The biggest offenses are Craig Monroe and Mike Hessman being written into the lineup just about every day for the last 2 weeks. I have no idea what is going on with Monroe. I've always thought of him as a below average player, but even I dont believe he is this bad. The one redeeming factor for Monroe has been his power, and that has all but vanished lately. Most of his hits lately have been seeing eye grounders and bloops off the end of the bat. Nevertheless, if we want to have the best shot at winning, it would seem that Monroe needs to spend a lot more time on the bench. Monroe could still help this team out, but the odds of that happening are getting slimmer and slimmer.
As for Hessman, he's always been a poor hitter in the minors up until this year. He was having a great year in Toledo, except his batting average was only at .256. I'm not a huge fan of the batting average statistic as a way to measure a players value, but you need to be able to hit higher than that if you're going to really help a club out. Like Monroe, Hessman's big upside is his power...but even that hasnt translated into the big leagues so far (granted its a small sample size in about 30 ABs). With the slump the Tigers are in, I cant understand us continuing to put these two in the lineup. The lineup each day should be the best combination of players that we have right now, and unfortunately, Monroe and Hessman are not among them.
I suggested this lineup on motownsports, but obviously its not gonna happen
Raburn, LF
Polanco, 2B
Guillen, SS
Sheffield, DH
Granderson, CF
Ordonez, RF
Rodriguez, C
Casey, 1B
Inge, 3B
This eliminates (or at least shrinks) the giant hole in the bottom of the order. It also puts Granderson in a spot where his power is going to make more of a difference, and it allows him to be protected in the lineup by Sheff (Grandy would get plenty of ABs with someone on base) and Ordonez (Among the leaders in hitting.) With Grandersons speed, he should be able to get himself into scoring position both with his bat and with his legs. Since Rodriguez and Casey are pretty much singles and gap hitters, I would think run production between the two of them should go up with having Granderson and Ordonez in scoring position often in front of them.
Guillen is our best all around hitter (when healthy) and he should be hitting third. I dont mind Sheffield in the 3 hole, but putting Polanco and Guillen ahead of Sheffield is gonna be that much more devastating, especially if Raburn can keep up the good work. He's getting on base at over a .400 clip in 60+ ABs.
Long story short, I think that lineup makes the best use of what we have right now. When Thames returns, I'd like to see him get the bulk of the ABs at first. Casey has far exceeded my expectations (which were very low at the start of the season), but he's not the future at first.
I'll end this rather short post by saying that I was very encouraged with the job Fernando Rodney did today. One inning, one walk, no hits, no runs. Control seemed decent (by Rodney standards) and the velocity was very strong. Of course, the downside is that his return is coupled by the loss of Andrew Miller to the 15-day DL with a strained hamstring. Chad Durbin is going to be in the rotation for the time being, which I think is a good move.
Once there's actually something positive to talk about, I'll probably post more often. But now I'm just frustrated with this teams play and I dont want to ruin my blog by venting too much. A series vs. Tampa Bay may be just what the doctor ordered, of course I thought the same thing about two series vs. the White Sox and a series against the A's.....
Now I'm willing to give the team a bit of a break at this point. I still expect them to go out there and play hard, and they are doing so, but there are several factors acting against them. As stated above, half the team is banged up or outright hurt at this time, but the thing that really has begun to irk me is the management decisions made by Jim Leyland. His lineups are not utilizing our weapons properly and he is giving way too much playing time to guys who really dont have much business being on a competitive big league roster.
The biggest offenses are Craig Monroe and Mike Hessman being written into the lineup just about every day for the last 2 weeks. I have no idea what is going on with Monroe. I've always thought of him as a below average player, but even I dont believe he is this bad. The one redeeming factor for Monroe has been his power, and that has all but vanished lately. Most of his hits lately have been seeing eye grounders and bloops off the end of the bat. Nevertheless, if we want to have the best shot at winning, it would seem that Monroe needs to spend a lot more time on the bench. Monroe could still help this team out, but the odds of that happening are getting slimmer and slimmer.
As for Hessman, he's always been a poor hitter in the minors up until this year. He was having a great year in Toledo, except his batting average was only at .256. I'm not a huge fan of the batting average statistic as a way to measure a players value, but you need to be able to hit higher than that if you're going to really help a club out. Like Monroe, Hessman's big upside is his power...but even that hasnt translated into the big leagues so far (granted its a small sample size in about 30 ABs). With the slump the Tigers are in, I cant understand us continuing to put these two in the lineup. The lineup each day should be the best combination of players that we have right now, and unfortunately, Monroe and Hessman are not among them.
I suggested this lineup on motownsports, but obviously its not gonna happen
Raburn, LF
Polanco, 2B
Guillen, SS
Sheffield, DH
Granderson, CF
Ordonez, RF
Rodriguez, C
Casey, 1B
Inge, 3B
This eliminates (or at least shrinks) the giant hole in the bottom of the order. It also puts Granderson in a spot where his power is going to make more of a difference, and it allows him to be protected in the lineup by Sheff (Grandy would get plenty of ABs with someone on base) and Ordonez (Among the leaders in hitting.) With Grandersons speed, he should be able to get himself into scoring position both with his bat and with his legs. Since Rodriguez and Casey are pretty much singles and gap hitters, I would think run production between the two of them should go up with having Granderson and Ordonez in scoring position often in front of them.
Guillen is our best all around hitter (when healthy) and he should be hitting third. I dont mind Sheffield in the 3 hole, but putting Polanco and Guillen ahead of Sheffield is gonna be that much more devastating, especially if Raburn can keep up the good work. He's getting on base at over a .400 clip in 60+ ABs.
Long story short, I think that lineup makes the best use of what we have right now. When Thames returns, I'd like to see him get the bulk of the ABs at first. Casey has far exceeded my expectations (which were very low at the start of the season), but he's not the future at first.
I'll end this rather short post by saying that I was very encouraged with the job Fernando Rodney did today. One inning, one walk, no hits, no runs. Control seemed decent (by Rodney standards) and the velocity was very strong. Of course, the downside is that his return is coupled by the loss of Andrew Miller to the 15-day DL with a strained hamstring. Chad Durbin is going to be in the rotation for the time being, which I think is a good move.
Once there's actually something positive to talk about, I'll probably post more often. But now I'm just frustrated with this teams play and I dont want to ruin my blog by venting too much. A series vs. Tampa Bay may be just what the doctor ordered, of course I thought the same thing about two series vs. the White Sox and a series against the A's.....
Tuesday, July 31, 2007
08-01-07 Bullpen Thoughts and Observations
We're harder on the bullpen then we should be, considering that there's maybe 2 legit MLB relievers in there.
But that doesnt excuse the AAAA guys from performing terribly. We've used 15 relievers this year and only Bobby Seay has been consistently effective.
I'm not gonna buy the excuse that the relievers are tired. There are three guys in our pen who have logged 30 or more innings in 106 games with the big club. Grilli, Durbin, and Jones. They're not tired...they're just bad.
Here's your problem right here: WHIP
Here are the 2007 WHIPs for all relievers we've used this year (active relievers in bold):
Bazardo: 0.92
Seay: 1.14
McBride: 1.25
Lopez: 1.26
Capellan: 1.29
Durbin: 1.38
Zumaya: 1.38
Rodney: 1.45
Jones: 1.47
Grilli: 1.50
Miner: 1.50
Byrdak: 1.57
Ledezma: 1.79
De La Cruz: 2.10
Mesa: 2.14
totals of current active relievers (entering tonight):
264 IP, 271 Hits, 99 Walks, 177 Ks
1.40 WHIP (1.02 hits/inning; .38 Walks/inning) 0.67 K/inning
So in the average inning from our relievers, we can expect almost a man and a half on average (or a little less than 3 base runners in 2 innings). Now thats bad enough, but that becomes and even bigger problem with inherited runners. Unless a starter is completely bombing, we'd be better off letting them finish the inning so that the pen can start with the bases cleared.
When Zumaya and Rodney return, there is no excuse for Grilli or Byrdak to be on this team.
By the way, look at the lefty/righty splits for our current pen members (with a few highlighted delights:
NAME
VS L/R (BAA/ OBPA/ SLGA/ OPSA)
McBride
vs LH: .222/.314/.311/.625
vs RH: .241/.397/.310/.708
Byrdak
vs LH: .222/.294/.630/.924
vs RH: .288/.362/.424/.786
Capellan
vs LH: .238/.360/.381/.741
vs RH: .242/.294/.419/.713
Durbin
vs LH: .287/.356/.387/.743
vs RH: .238/.315/.461/.776
Grilli
vs LH: .271/.386/.424/.809
vs RH: .277/.335/.416/.752
Jones
vs LH: .289/.355/.402/.757
vs RH: .266/.310/.316/.627
Seay
vs LH: .211/.246/.298/.544
vs RH: .300/.345/.460/.805
Looking at these splits for 2007, it may surprise you to learn:
Bobby Seay has pitched 50 ABs against righties, and 58 ABs against lefties. Not exactly LOOGY splits there, but the suckitude of the pen probably forces Leyland to use him more than he wants to. Seay should be limited to lefties exclusively, no question.
Todd Jones has had 97 ABs against lefties (see splits above) and 79 ABs against righties. I know we've pretty much accepted Jones as our closer--which is fine--but if its a save situation with 2 or more lefties coming up, we'd be better off using either Seay or McBride. Jones has been very solid against righties this year, so I'm gonna suggest the unpopular notion that we do a closer by committee for the time being and play to our strengths.
Capellan has the best combined splits (and the strongest K and BB numbers and ratios) of all of our relievers (arguments could be made for McBride and Jones), and yet we've used him for 9.1 innings since we obtained him at the end of June.
McBride has a 9/15 K/BB ratio vs rightis, and allows them to get on base at a near .400 clip (in 58 ABs this year), yet they're only slugging .310.
Grilli's combined OBPA is .349. so 35 out of every 100 batters are getting on base against him. Or in other words, for every 100 batters he faces, he can only get 65 of them out. Not shockingly, thats the worst on the team, yet he leads the team in relief innings.
Byrdak has crazy splits. Lefties dont get on base a lot against him (4 walks and 6 hits against him in 27 ABS) but all 6 of those hits are extra base hits (3 doubles, a triple, 2 HRs)
Durbin is hard to gauge at this point because his numbers are skewed by what he did as a starter, so its harder to gauge what he has done in relief. Regardless, he should probably not be put in situations where he's going to face a predominantly left handed lineup. Save those games for Seay, McBride and Jones.
Bottom line. Grilli must go. Byrdak should as well. The pen will get significantly better with Rodney and Zumaya, even if they need to shake off some rust in their first few outings. Leyland also needs to do a better job of managing for the situation and the upcoming batters. With the inconsistencies of this pen, he should not be having a pitcher come into the game to face one hitter. At this point, he needs to jumble up the roles of a few pitchers in the pen. Give Durbin all the long relief innings in games where theres a 4 or less run difference. Use Capellan and McBride much more often. Jones should be used in tough situations even if they are in the 7th inning if we have several right handed hitters coming up (this should happen until Zumaya and Rodney return, then Jones can be used in only closer situations.) Byrdak should never be used against lefties. Seay should never be used against righties.
But that doesnt excuse the AAAA guys from performing terribly. We've used 15 relievers this year and only Bobby Seay has been consistently effective.
I'm not gonna buy the excuse that the relievers are tired. There are three guys in our pen who have logged 30 or more innings in 106 games with the big club. Grilli, Durbin, and Jones. They're not tired...they're just bad.
Here's your problem right here: WHIP
Here are the 2007 WHIPs for all relievers we've used this year (active relievers in bold):
Bazardo: 0.92
Seay: 1.14
McBride: 1.25
Lopez: 1.26
Capellan: 1.29
Durbin: 1.38
Zumaya: 1.38
Rodney: 1.45
Jones: 1.47
Grilli: 1.50
Miner: 1.50
Byrdak: 1.57
Ledezma: 1.79
De La Cruz: 2.10
Mesa: 2.14
totals of current active relievers (entering tonight):
264 IP, 271 Hits, 99 Walks, 177 Ks
1.40 WHIP (1.02 hits/inning; .38 Walks/inning) 0.67 K/inning
So in the average inning from our relievers, we can expect almost a man and a half on average (or a little less than 3 base runners in 2 innings). Now thats bad enough, but that becomes and even bigger problem with inherited runners. Unless a starter is completely bombing, we'd be better off letting them finish the inning so that the pen can start with the bases cleared.
When Zumaya and Rodney return, there is no excuse for Grilli or Byrdak to be on this team.
By the way, look at the lefty/righty splits for our current pen members (with a few highlighted delights:
NAME
VS L/R (BAA/ OBPA/ SLGA/ OPSA)
McBride
vs LH: .222/.314/.311/.625
vs RH: .241/.397/.310/.708
Byrdak
vs LH: .222/.294/.630/.924
vs RH: .288/.362/.424/.786
Capellan
vs LH: .238/.360/.381/.741
vs RH: .242/.294/.419/.713
Durbin
vs LH: .287/.356/.387/.743
vs RH: .238/.315/.461/.776
Grilli
vs LH: .271/.386/.424/.809
vs RH: .277/.335/.416/.752
Jones
vs LH: .289/.355/.402/.757
vs RH: .266/.310/.316/.627
Seay
vs LH: .211/.246/.298/.544
vs RH: .300/.345/.460/.805
Looking at these splits for 2007, it may surprise you to learn:
Bobby Seay has pitched 50 ABs against righties, and 58 ABs against lefties. Not exactly LOOGY splits there, but the suckitude of the pen probably forces Leyland to use him more than he wants to. Seay should be limited to lefties exclusively, no question.
Todd Jones has had 97 ABs against lefties (see splits above) and 79 ABs against righties. I know we've pretty much accepted Jones as our closer--which is fine--but if its a save situation with 2 or more lefties coming up, we'd be better off using either Seay or McBride. Jones has been very solid against righties this year, so I'm gonna suggest the unpopular notion that we do a closer by committee for the time being and play to our strengths.
Capellan has the best combined splits (and the strongest K and BB numbers and ratios) of all of our relievers (arguments could be made for McBride and Jones), and yet we've used him for 9.1 innings since we obtained him at the end of June.
McBride has a 9/15 K/BB ratio vs rightis, and allows them to get on base at a near .400 clip (in 58 ABs this year), yet they're only slugging .310.
Grilli's combined OBPA is .349. so 35 out of every 100 batters are getting on base against him. Or in other words, for every 100 batters he faces, he can only get 65 of them out. Not shockingly, thats the worst on the team, yet he leads the team in relief innings.
Byrdak has crazy splits. Lefties dont get on base a lot against him (4 walks and 6 hits against him in 27 ABS) but all 6 of those hits are extra base hits (3 doubles, a triple, 2 HRs)
Durbin is hard to gauge at this point because his numbers are skewed by what he did as a starter, so its harder to gauge what he has done in relief. Regardless, he should probably not be put in situations where he's going to face a predominantly left handed lineup. Save those games for Seay, McBride and Jones.
Bottom line. Grilli must go. Byrdak should as well. The pen will get significantly better with Rodney and Zumaya, even if they need to shake off some rust in their first few outings. Leyland also needs to do a better job of managing for the situation and the upcoming batters. With the inconsistencies of this pen, he should not be having a pitcher come into the game to face one hitter. At this point, he needs to jumble up the roles of a few pitchers in the pen. Give Durbin all the long relief innings in games where theres a 4 or less run difference. Use Capellan and McBride much more often. Jones should be used in tough situations even if they are in the 7th inning if we have several right handed hitters coming up (this should happen until Zumaya and Rodney return, then Jones can be used in only closer situations.) Byrdak should never be used against lefties. Seay should never be used against righties.
Sunday, July 29, 2007
7-30-07 Trading Deadline/Pitching Staff analysis
After suffering through the last two series against the White Sox and the Angels, it became brutally obvious that the Tigers need both some rest and pitching depth. We've lost 4 straight and 6 of our last 7 games....all of which can be attributed to pitching problems. Lets take a moment to analyze what we have.
Starting Pitchers
Regardless of if the Indians surpass us and take the division lead, Justin Verlander and Jeremy Bonderman arent going anywhere. We've really needed those two to step up and log some quality starts lately and it just hasnt happened. Their command has been off, but you also have to credit the opposing offenses for taking advantage of that. We've seen several games in the careers of Bonderman and Verlander where they havent been especially sharp, but they've managed to get the opposition to create outs on their own. This hasnt been the case lately. But it is ridiculous to think that both of these two will not regain their form and pitch well for us down the stretch. If they cant do that, then I'd put a significant portion of the blame on Jim Leyland and Chuck Hernandez. They're too good to be bad for a long period of time.
So lets first look at Bonderman, who just got completely lit up tonight. His first inning struggles are well documented (an ERA around 9.20 this year in the first inning), but its been his performances in the ensuing innings that have kept us in games and won us games.
A look at Bonderman's 2007 splits and where he struggles:
Problems:
First Innings. Opponents are hitting .356 with an alarming .701 slugging percentage--which pans out to a 1.105 OPS. So a first inning for Bonderman is like facing Barry Bonds in each at bat. We've speculated and speculated as to what the problem is with Bonderman and the first innings, but without inside knowledge, it's hard to say. You'd think it's either a real mental issue (overanxious, lack of focus, etc.) but it could be that his warm-up routine isnt working for him.
What is particularly surprising when you take into account his first inning struggles is the pitch breakdown. Check out what opponents do to him in various pitch increments:
Pitches 01-15: .375/.426/.821/1.248
Pitches 16-30: .211/.241/.329/.569
Pitches 31-45: .253/.298/.291/.589
Pitches 46-60: .253/.305/.360/.665
Pitches 61-75: .174/.193/.302/.496
Pitches 76-90: .209/.254/.284/.537
Pitches 91-105: .356/.383/.667/1.050
Without question, the most effective way to use Jeremy Bonderman is to have him get through those first 15 pitches with as minimal damage as possible--and then let him work his magic. Its very strange at how quickly he becomes effective after the first 15 pitches and continues that effectiveness until he is well into 90 pitches. Again, there obviously isnt an ability problem, but he lacks sharpness coming out of the gate. You'll notice that not only is the batting average against very high, but the on base percentage is sky high as well. He has walked more batters in the first inning than in any other inning this year.
Bases Empty.
Now Bonderman does overall pitch better with the bases empty, as can probably be said about most pitchers. The alarming thing is that he has allowed 11 solo homeruns already this year and 14 doubles with the bases empty. There's an interesting split to look at here:
Bases empty: .234/.274/.407/.681 ----- 11 HRA, 19 Doubles, 16 Walks
Runners On: .283/.321/.397/.718 ----- 4 HRA, 9 Doubles, 10 Walks
So when runners are on, opponents are hitting, but not for any power. When the bases are empty, opponents arent hitting nearly as frequently, but for a considerable amount more power.
This is perhaps another scenario that would lead you to believe that Bonderman loses focus at times. He seems much more likely to serve up a meatball if he doesnt have to worry about any baserunners, which is especially strange considering the amount of flack Bonderman takes for not being able to combat the baserunners by holding them close or keeping them from getting good reads and jumps off of him.
At this point, I'd conclude that while Bonderman is improving each year and his stuff is among the tops in the league, it looks like the thing that he'll have to do to really be a definite top 10 pitcher in the AL is to clear some mental hurdles. Unfortunately, thats not something that is always easy for an individual to do--on or off the field.
Justin Verlander is the pitcher that we should by far be the least concerned about. Even with a string of a couple of poorer performances lately, his splits are much better than Bondermans all around. In no inning do opponents hit over .300, Slug over .450, or have an OPS over .800. This tells us that he is very good at minimizing damage regardless of the situation. But....BUT...look at this:
Pitches 1-15: .278/.371/.426/.797
Obviously not nearly as bad as Bonderman's split, but still considerably higher than in any other pitch range or inning. To a certain degree, I'm guessing that this may be more than just a personal problem for these two pitchers. I'd like to suggest that either the mental preparation or the physical preparation is not what it needs to be in the moments before a game. Both are 24 years old, so its certainly plausible that its just them being overly amped up. However, if I'm noticing this, then no doubt coaches are as well. Once this team gets out of its current funk and starts playing at the level its capable of, then I think it would be an interesting experiment to see if some sort of meditation or calming techniques would positively effect either Jeremy or Justin for their initial game performances.
But like I said at the beginning, we can speculate as to what the problem is and what should be done about it, but with how these two have pitched over the last two years, it's not really anything more than a minor annoyance to us fans.
The other three spots in the rotation are the keys to the stretch run. Nate Robertson has suffered from a tired arm and has not been nearly as effective as Tiger fans have grown used to. Kenny Rogers just went on the DL again. Andrew Miller being in his first full year of pro ball is a question mark in many areas.
Starting with Nate Robertson, I'd have to think that either the problem with him has not been diagnosed yet, or that the full story hasnt been released to us. Except for April, Nate has not had a month where he has had an ERA under 5.50 and he has not had a month where opponents havent hit .290+ against him. What is scary is that Nate typically is strong in the first three months of the season, but then falters in July, August and September. And thats when he's healthy. Since the drop-off in effectiveness has already hit harder than it ever has, I'm not optimistic that Nate is going to be an effective starter for us throughout the rest of the year. Nate is considered the bulldog of the staff because even if he's struggling, he's able to pitch consistently and he's tough on left handers. If he cant be consistently average as a starter, then he's of very little use to a contending team. Even though I'd still believe that Nate could be an excellent back of the rotation pitcher for the Tigers for several more years, perhaps the time has come to trade him. Only issue is that if we do send Nate packing, his spot in the rotation isnt going to be easy to fill with the type of pitcher that we need for this stretch run. I'll get into that a little later.
Kenny Rogers has just had a tough year. I really cant fault him for any struggles he has had on the field. Between a serious arm problem which he had to have surgery on in spring training to this new injury, Kenny's year is pretty much shot. At this point the earliest he'd return is mid-August. Much like Zumaya and Rodney, we cant assume he's going to be effective when he returns--and assuming he'll be at 100% health would also be a stretch. This team needs Kenny Rogers both on the field and in the clubhouse. With this injury, there's pretty much no way he's going to be traded. The Tigers are just going to have to ride it out with Kenny and see if he can bounce back. But between the struggles of Nate and the health problems that Kenny has run into, suddenly our once dominant rotation becomes a bit of a weakness. Since there's not much we can do about Rogers' situation at this point, I'm not concerned about the future of Kenny Rogers as a Tiger. That can be worked out in the off-season. It may work out as an advantage because he may take a big pay cut because of his age and new injury history.
I already spent some time documenting Andrew Miller and my thoughts on him in my previous post. As a #4 or #5 starter for us right now, he isnt hurting the team. Now that he's being bumped up to a #3 for the time being, it has me more concerned. Miller belongs in the big leagues right now, but putting too much pressure on him to perform could hurt him. He needs to just go out there and pitch. Each outing should be a learning experience for him rather than an expected 7+ inning quality start. He has the stuff to give us that, but to expect it from a 22 year old rookie is too much. I'm comfortable with him staying in the rotation for the rest of the year (provided he doesnt completely go off the deep end performance wise), but I dont want to rely on him to be a key component in the playoff run.
Now the question becomes what to do to 'fix' our rotation for the rest of the year. We've given Virgil Vasquez two starts and he has shown that he's still a little ways away from being rotation worthy. I like Vasquez, but in watching his two starts at the big league level, he strikes me as a guy who could turn into a right handed Mike Maroth. He's good, but only if he has his command and if he's getting the corners for strikes. Otherwise he'll end up leaving pitches over the plate and he'll get hit hard. As a September call-up, Vasquez would be good for a spot start or some long relief in the bullpen, but thats all I'd try with him.
Jordan Tata is getting the call up to fill Kenny Rogers' spot in the rotation, at least for this next start. This could be a diamond in the rough for us, and it will be very interesting to see how Tata performs and if he demonstrates usefulness at the big league level. He certainly did at the beginning of 2006 when he was an effective reliever for a short stint. His numbers at Toledo are very strong, and if Tata can come out and pitch well for a couple starts in this call-up, I might just stick with him for a while. We can always fall back on Chad Durbin to take this spot in the rotation if we need him to, but even with the slide the Tigers have been on it might not be a bad idea to give Tata an extended look.
There's not much else in our system that can step up into the rotation. Bazardo has been up and down for the Hens all year. I was impressed a little bit with what he showed in his call-up earlier, but I suspect his best effort in an MLB rotation would be no better than what Nate Robertson is already giving us in his struggles. Jair Jurrjens is still a ways off. And we're not going to be using Dennis Tankersley or Ron Chiavacci unless everyone on our staff gets injured.
The other option--which I expect to happen as of this moment--is to trade for a veteran starter. We saw what having an experienced pitcher can do with Kenny Rogers last year. Without Rogers and with a struggling Robertson, a veteran arm with a relaxed attitude could be just what the doctor ordered to help get the starters back on track. I havent read any particular rumors linking a starter to the Tigers, but I'd wager Dave Dombrowski is at least looking into it somewhat. He has a pretty daunting task at the moment as the bullpen definitely needs an addition and the left field position hasnt been sorted out just yet.
According to the MLB4U rumor collection, here's what they're saying is available in terms of starting pitching (and what the teams may want in return):
-Dontrelle Willis. The price on him is undoubtedly going to be high, and I dont think his electric attitude makes a good fit at the moment, although it would be nice to acquire him in the future.
-Joe Blanton. Apparently the price on him is exceedingly high, and perhaps rightfully so. He's been with the A's on their playoff runs the last couple years, so he could bring a big boost. But I dont think we have what the A's are looking for, unless they would want some sort of package deal with several prospects. Not many of our players fit the Billy Beane mold though.
-Matt Morris. This could be a nice fit. Morris isnt the pitcher he was a few years back, but he's still effective and not too old. I dont know how he'd translate into the American League though. The Giants will undoubtedly be sellers and are probably going to look for younger position players, which the Tigers really dont have a lot of.
-Shawn Chacon. Meh. Might not be a bad bullpen pickup.
And thats really about it......so it doesnt look like this situation is going to be resolved with any ease. If Dave Dombrowski can pull something off to help both the rotation and the bullpen, it will further assert my feeling that he is the best GM in baseball. But for the moment, we just may have to hope and pray that Jordan Tata immediately asserts himself as an answer.
I know I said I was gonna whine and complain about the umpires, but that is gonna have to take a backseat in all Tigers discussions until the teams play turns around. There's just too much else to focus on and to be concerned about for me to waste energy on calling out the umpires for a poor performance over the last week (and several times throughout the season).
Hopefully by the next time I make a post, there will be some new trade deadline developments to discuss. Personally, I'm hoping all the talk about Al Reyes and Clint Barmes turns out to be bunk, as I dont see either of them being improvements for us now or in the future. Chad Cordero tops my wish list right now, with the Joe Koshansky/Ian Stewart rumor being a close second.
Starting Pitchers
Regardless of if the Indians surpass us and take the division lead, Justin Verlander and Jeremy Bonderman arent going anywhere. We've really needed those two to step up and log some quality starts lately and it just hasnt happened. Their command has been off, but you also have to credit the opposing offenses for taking advantage of that. We've seen several games in the careers of Bonderman and Verlander where they havent been especially sharp, but they've managed to get the opposition to create outs on their own. This hasnt been the case lately. But it is ridiculous to think that both of these two will not regain their form and pitch well for us down the stretch. If they cant do that, then I'd put a significant portion of the blame on Jim Leyland and Chuck Hernandez. They're too good to be bad for a long period of time.
So lets first look at Bonderman, who just got completely lit up tonight. His first inning struggles are well documented (an ERA around 9.20 this year in the first inning), but its been his performances in the ensuing innings that have kept us in games and won us games.
A look at Bonderman's 2007 splits and where he struggles:
Problems:
First Innings. Opponents are hitting .356 with an alarming .701 slugging percentage--which pans out to a 1.105 OPS. So a first inning for Bonderman is like facing Barry Bonds in each at bat. We've speculated and speculated as to what the problem is with Bonderman and the first innings, but without inside knowledge, it's hard to say. You'd think it's either a real mental issue (overanxious, lack of focus, etc.) but it could be that his warm-up routine isnt working for him.
What is particularly surprising when you take into account his first inning struggles is the pitch breakdown. Check out what opponents do to him in various pitch increments:
Pitches 01-15: .375/.426/.821/1.248
Pitches 16-30: .211/.241/.329/.569
Pitches 31-45: .253/.298/.291/.589
Pitches 46-60: .253/.305/.360/.665
Pitches 61-75: .174/.193/.302/.496
Pitches 76-90: .209/.254/.284/.537
Pitches 91-105: .356/.383/.667/1.050
Without question, the most effective way to use Jeremy Bonderman is to have him get through those first 15 pitches with as minimal damage as possible--and then let him work his magic. Its very strange at how quickly he becomes effective after the first 15 pitches and continues that effectiveness until he is well into 90 pitches. Again, there obviously isnt an ability problem, but he lacks sharpness coming out of the gate. You'll notice that not only is the batting average against very high, but the on base percentage is sky high as well. He has walked more batters in the first inning than in any other inning this year.
Bases Empty.
Now Bonderman does overall pitch better with the bases empty, as can probably be said about most pitchers. The alarming thing is that he has allowed 11 solo homeruns already this year and 14 doubles with the bases empty. There's an interesting split to look at here:
Bases empty: .234/.274/.407/.681 ----- 11 HRA, 19 Doubles, 16 Walks
Runners On: .283/.321/.397/.718 ----- 4 HRA, 9 Doubles, 10 Walks
So when runners are on, opponents are hitting, but not for any power. When the bases are empty, opponents arent hitting nearly as frequently, but for a considerable amount more power.
This is perhaps another scenario that would lead you to believe that Bonderman loses focus at times. He seems much more likely to serve up a meatball if he doesnt have to worry about any baserunners, which is especially strange considering the amount of flack Bonderman takes for not being able to combat the baserunners by holding them close or keeping them from getting good reads and jumps off of him.
At this point, I'd conclude that while Bonderman is improving each year and his stuff is among the tops in the league, it looks like the thing that he'll have to do to really be a definite top 10 pitcher in the AL is to clear some mental hurdles. Unfortunately, thats not something that is always easy for an individual to do--on or off the field.
Justin Verlander is the pitcher that we should by far be the least concerned about. Even with a string of a couple of poorer performances lately, his splits are much better than Bondermans all around. In no inning do opponents hit over .300, Slug over .450, or have an OPS over .800. This tells us that he is very good at minimizing damage regardless of the situation. But....BUT...look at this:
Pitches 1-15: .278/.371/.426/.797
Obviously not nearly as bad as Bonderman's split, but still considerably higher than in any other pitch range or inning. To a certain degree, I'm guessing that this may be more than just a personal problem for these two pitchers. I'd like to suggest that either the mental preparation or the physical preparation is not what it needs to be in the moments before a game. Both are 24 years old, so its certainly plausible that its just them being overly amped up. However, if I'm noticing this, then no doubt coaches are as well. Once this team gets out of its current funk and starts playing at the level its capable of, then I think it would be an interesting experiment to see if some sort of meditation or calming techniques would positively effect either Jeremy or Justin for their initial game performances.
But like I said at the beginning, we can speculate as to what the problem is and what should be done about it, but with how these two have pitched over the last two years, it's not really anything more than a minor annoyance to us fans.
The other three spots in the rotation are the keys to the stretch run. Nate Robertson has suffered from a tired arm and has not been nearly as effective as Tiger fans have grown used to. Kenny Rogers just went on the DL again. Andrew Miller being in his first full year of pro ball is a question mark in many areas.
Starting with Nate Robertson, I'd have to think that either the problem with him has not been diagnosed yet, or that the full story hasnt been released to us. Except for April, Nate has not had a month where he has had an ERA under 5.50 and he has not had a month where opponents havent hit .290+ against him. What is scary is that Nate typically is strong in the first three months of the season, but then falters in July, August and September. And thats when he's healthy. Since the drop-off in effectiveness has already hit harder than it ever has, I'm not optimistic that Nate is going to be an effective starter for us throughout the rest of the year. Nate is considered the bulldog of the staff because even if he's struggling, he's able to pitch consistently and he's tough on left handers. If he cant be consistently average as a starter, then he's of very little use to a contending team. Even though I'd still believe that Nate could be an excellent back of the rotation pitcher for the Tigers for several more years, perhaps the time has come to trade him. Only issue is that if we do send Nate packing, his spot in the rotation isnt going to be easy to fill with the type of pitcher that we need for this stretch run. I'll get into that a little later.
Kenny Rogers has just had a tough year. I really cant fault him for any struggles he has had on the field. Between a serious arm problem which he had to have surgery on in spring training to this new injury, Kenny's year is pretty much shot. At this point the earliest he'd return is mid-August. Much like Zumaya and Rodney, we cant assume he's going to be effective when he returns--and assuming he'll be at 100% health would also be a stretch. This team needs Kenny Rogers both on the field and in the clubhouse. With this injury, there's pretty much no way he's going to be traded. The Tigers are just going to have to ride it out with Kenny and see if he can bounce back. But between the struggles of Nate and the health problems that Kenny has run into, suddenly our once dominant rotation becomes a bit of a weakness. Since there's not much we can do about Rogers' situation at this point, I'm not concerned about the future of Kenny Rogers as a Tiger. That can be worked out in the off-season. It may work out as an advantage because he may take a big pay cut because of his age and new injury history.
I already spent some time documenting Andrew Miller and my thoughts on him in my previous post. As a #4 or #5 starter for us right now, he isnt hurting the team. Now that he's being bumped up to a #3 for the time being, it has me more concerned. Miller belongs in the big leagues right now, but putting too much pressure on him to perform could hurt him. He needs to just go out there and pitch. Each outing should be a learning experience for him rather than an expected 7+ inning quality start. He has the stuff to give us that, but to expect it from a 22 year old rookie is too much. I'm comfortable with him staying in the rotation for the rest of the year (provided he doesnt completely go off the deep end performance wise), but I dont want to rely on him to be a key component in the playoff run.
Now the question becomes what to do to 'fix' our rotation for the rest of the year. We've given Virgil Vasquez two starts and he has shown that he's still a little ways away from being rotation worthy. I like Vasquez, but in watching his two starts at the big league level, he strikes me as a guy who could turn into a right handed Mike Maroth. He's good, but only if he has his command and if he's getting the corners for strikes. Otherwise he'll end up leaving pitches over the plate and he'll get hit hard. As a September call-up, Vasquez would be good for a spot start or some long relief in the bullpen, but thats all I'd try with him.
Jordan Tata is getting the call up to fill Kenny Rogers' spot in the rotation, at least for this next start. This could be a diamond in the rough for us, and it will be very interesting to see how Tata performs and if he demonstrates usefulness at the big league level. He certainly did at the beginning of 2006 when he was an effective reliever for a short stint. His numbers at Toledo are very strong, and if Tata can come out and pitch well for a couple starts in this call-up, I might just stick with him for a while. We can always fall back on Chad Durbin to take this spot in the rotation if we need him to, but even with the slide the Tigers have been on it might not be a bad idea to give Tata an extended look.
There's not much else in our system that can step up into the rotation. Bazardo has been up and down for the Hens all year. I was impressed a little bit with what he showed in his call-up earlier, but I suspect his best effort in an MLB rotation would be no better than what Nate Robertson is already giving us in his struggles. Jair Jurrjens is still a ways off. And we're not going to be using Dennis Tankersley or Ron Chiavacci unless everyone on our staff gets injured.
The other option--which I expect to happen as of this moment--is to trade for a veteran starter. We saw what having an experienced pitcher can do with Kenny Rogers last year. Without Rogers and with a struggling Robertson, a veteran arm with a relaxed attitude could be just what the doctor ordered to help get the starters back on track. I havent read any particular rumors linking a starter to the Tigers, but I'd wager Dave Dombrowski is at least looking into it somewhat. He has a pretty daunting task at the moment as the bullpen definitely needs an addition and the left field position hasnt been sorted out just yet.
According to the MLB4U rumor collection, here's what they're saying is available in terms of starting pitching (and what the teams may want in return):
-Dontrelle Willis. The price on him is undoubtedly going to be high, and I dont think his electric attitude makes a good fit at the moment, although it would be nice to acquire him in the future.
-Joe Blanton. Apparently the price on him is exceedingly high, and perhaps rightfully so. He's been with the A's on their playoff runs the last couple years, so he could bring a big boost. But I dont think we have what the A's are looking for, unless they would want some sort of package deal with several prospects. Not many of our players fit the Billy Beane mold though.
-Matt Morris. This could be a nice fit. Morris isnt the pitcher he was a few years back, but he's still effective and not too old. I dont know how he'd translate into the American League though. The Giants will undoubtedly be sellers and are probably going to look for younger position players, which the Tigers really dont have a lot of.
-Shawn Chacon. Meh. Might not be a bad bullpen pickup.
And thats really about it......so it doesnt look like this situation is going to be resolved with any ease. If Dave Dombrowski can pull something off to help both the rotation and the bullpen, it will further assert my feeling that he is the best GM in baseball. But for the moment, we just may have to hope and pray that Jordan Tata immediately asserts himself as an answer.
I know I said I was gonna whine and complain about the umpires, but that is gonna have to take a backseat in all Tigers discussions until the teams play turns around. There's just too much else to focus on and to be concerned about for me to waste energy on calling out the umpires for a poor performance over the last week (and several times throughout the season).
Hopefully by the next time I make a post, there will be some new trade deadline developments to discuss. Personally, I'm hoping all the talk about Al Reyes and Clint Barmes turns out to be bunk, as I dont see either of them being improvements for us now or in the future. Chad Cordero tops my wish list right now, with the Joe Koshansky/Ian Stewart rumor being a close second.
7-29-07 It's A Bad Bad Bad Bad Bullpen
Ok, so after calming down a bit after another bullpen meltdown, I'm ready to speak with a level head.
First things first: The bullpen.
There's three (actually, make that four) reasons the pen is not what we need it to be.
1.) Several spots given to journeymen and career minor leaguers. In all honesty, we've probably gotten the best we could have hoped for to this point out of Bobby Seay, Tim Byrdak, and Chad Durbin. Historically speaking, these guys have been terrible at the major league level. Compare what they've done this year with their major league career numbers since 2004:
Seay-----ERA-----WHIP-----BAA----K----BB----OPS--
2007-----2.96------1.17------.250----17----6-----.660--
Career---4.46------1.39------.261----74---39-----.757--
Byrdak
2007----4.43-------1.57------.264----12---28----.811
Career --6.14-------1.95------.306----86-- 64----.887
Durbin (as a reliever)
2007----4.86-------1.32------.246----11----7-----.765
Career --6.75-------1.73------.286----26---17-----.898
Durbin and Seay are 29, and Byrdak is 33 this year. So it's not particularly probable that they've suddenly developed into the pitchers people expected them to be. What we're likely seeing is a combination of fluke pitching and perhaps some slight improvement. Can we fault these three players for the current state of the bullpen? Absolutely not. In fact, these three have stepped up their games considerably this year and provided some decent outings to this point. Bobby Seay is probably the most effective reliever of the three, both this year and overall, but his numbers are largely influenced by LOOGY situations where he comes in to face left handed hitters only.
However, despite the improvements of these three players over the past year, you're walking on very thin ice to assume that any of them can keep up what they've been doing. In fact, Byrdak has seen his ERA rise over three full runs in his last 6 outings for the Tigers.* Bottom line here is that aside from Bobby Seay vs. lefties, we should not and cannot expect these three to contribute much more to the bullpen this year, and these are the three spots that we should be most concerned about as they will likely get used in many close and late game situations until Rodney and Zumaya return from injury.
(* 4 of those outings came before Byrdak went on the DL, 2 after he came back)
2.) Inexperience with young pitchers.
This is the least troublesome of the reasons for the bullpen struggles, because it is to be expected. Age isnt a particularly big deal, but experience is. Macay McBride, Zach Miner and Jose Capellan have all never spent an entire season on a major league roster. The only thing to worry about here is composure and consistency in relief outings. All three of these pitchers have had several good outings for the Tigers this year, but they've also had some outings where they've been hit hard. Like I said, you cant really dwell on that because it is to be expected. Basically, the way to fix this "problem" is to send one of them down to the minors and bring in that experienced veteran to replace them for the remainder of the year. My vote would be for Zach Miner to return to Toledo (once he comes back from the bereavement list) only because his abilities seem to be suited more for longer outings. He lacks the velocity and the out-pitch that McBride and Capellan have in their arsenals. Since we've seen Miner used increasingly in short outings and late game scenarios, his inability to overpower a hitter and get a key out has been exposed. If Miner were to be used as a reliever, it should be as a strict long relief pitcher. Zach has decent stuff, but its not what you need anywhere else in a pen besides long relief.
3.) Injuries
I see a growing number of Tiger fans starting to loudly complain about the bullpen. Obviously it has been a problem, but look at the missing components. Joel Zumaya and Fernando Rodney. Our two shut-down set up men. It is ridiculous to think that their absence wouldnt negatively affect the bullpen and that we could easily find two pitchers within our own system to sufficiently replace them. Consider where the other contending AL teams would be if they lost their two primary setup men.
What if the Angels didnt have Justin Speier and Scot Sheilds for most of the year, and had to rely on Chris Bootcheck and Darren Oliver to fill those roles? Would they even be ahead of the Mariners right now?
Without the two Rafaels, the Indians would probably be in worse shape than the Tigers are with their bullpen. You could easily argue that the combination of Tom Mastny, Fernando Cabrera, Joe Borowski, and Jason Stanford have been worse than Seay, Byrdak, Grilli and Jones.
The reason Boston is way out in front is because of their pen. Okajima, Papelbon, Delcarmen, Snyder, Lopez, Donnelly and Timlin all have ERAs under 4.00 and the highest WHIP in that group is 1.39. This is why Boston has the best record in baseball and this is why you have to consider them the favorites to win the AL pennant. They are the only team I see that could lose two of their relievers for a long period of time and still keep from falling apart. Kind of strange considering how the bullpen has long been the achilles heel of the Red Sox.
4.) Leyland
The only reason I bring this up is because of his undeniable confidence in Jason Grilli. Jason Grilli is our worst pitcher and hasnt even effectively managed the mop-up role in close to a year. Yet he gets run out there time and time again--lately in close and late game situations--only to not throw strikes, allow inherited runners to score and to have the opponents take and assert a lead. I trust that Jim Leyland knows what he's doing, and I'll give him the benefit of the doubt considering that he doesnt have a lot to work with at this point in the bullpen, but the overuse of Jason Grilli (or the mere fact that Grilli hasnt been released) is directly on Leylands shoulders. This is why a move needs to be made to bring in a reliever or two--it will (hopefully) get rid of Grilli and move either Durbin or Miner into the long relief spot where they are both more suited to pitch in given their repertoires.
The next order of business is determining what reliever(s) Dave Dombrowski should be looking at and what he should be willing to pay to get them.
The tricky part of this is the status of Zumaya and Rodney. If they come back and perform well, suddenly a move didnt need to be made in the first place and we may have given up a piece of the future for a lot less impact than we thought we would need. If Zoom and Rodney dont come back to their top form for a while after returning (which is what I expect), then adding a piece is a good move, but the pen will still be the key weakness of the team.
From what I have read, there are a handful of guys that the Tigers seem interested in acquiring as of the moment:
Chad Cordero
Jon Rauch
Octavio Dotel
Eric Gagne
Akinori Otsuka
David Weathers
All of these guys would likely be nice additions to the pen. The price to get them, however, makes them a bit less desirable. Maybin and Miller are going nowhere, and I suspect Dallas Trahern is mostly untouchable as well. I dont expect the Tigers to send Jair Jurrjens or Gorkys Hernandez anywhere unless it nets us a player like Mark Teixeira. For the purposes of just upgrading the bullpen, I'd be very surprised if we gave up anything more than Brent Clevlen or Jordan Tata. I'd hate to give up Tata because I think he could end up being a #5 for us once Kenny Rogers departs, but it may be a necessary move. Clevlen cant hit, but its possible that other GMs arent completely aware of that yet. With Granderson, Maybin, Raburn, and Ordonez locked up in the organization long term, Clevlen is expendable as far as I'm concerned.
The big rumor surrounding Octavio Dotel is that he'd go to Cleveland for either Ben Francisco or Franklin Gutierrez (both young outfielders). I'd be curious to see what the Royals GM would do if offered Clevlen and Virgil Vasquez/Yorman Bazardo. Dayton Moore seems to follow the Dave Dombrowski formula of trying to fill out his minor league system with hard throwers and rule V picks, as shown by his acquisitions of Joakim Soria and Roman Colon. Clevlen gives the Royals a strong defensive presence in the outfield, which it sorely lacks with Mark Teahen and Emil Brown/Reggie Sanders/Shane Costa at corner outfield.
David Riske could also be a nice addition coming from the Royals, but the Royals will probably want to move Dotel simply because he'll likely net more in return. Starting pitching is what the Royals need, as their rotation falls off a cliff after Gil Meche and Brian Bannister at this point. Scott Elarton was just released, and Jorge De la Rosa and Odalis Perez consistently struggle with their control.
As for the two Nationals and the two Rangers relievers listed above, I'd be a bit disappointed if we went after them. The prices that the GMs are asking are especially steep when you consider the recent injury problems that both Otsuka and Gagne have had, and that Jon Rauch has only been effective in recent weeks. Chad Cordero would be the best option out of those four, in my opinion, as he would be a longer term option for us.
David Weathers is old and awful, and the Astros just dealt Wheeler, so I'm guessing they hang onto Brad Lidge.
Below is a list of a few guys who I would rather see us go after--both because the price is low, and because with Leylands allegiance to Todd Jones, we dont need a current closer.
Chad Bradford
Kiko Calero
Damaso Marte
Vinnie Chulk
Russ Springer
Jeremy Accardo
Saul Rivera
None of those are big time names, but adding two of them could cost us very little and, in replacing Grilli and Byrdak, could be quite a significant upgrade.
Last on the agenda, the starting pitching staff and its recent troubles.
I firmly believe that this is nothing more than a minor bump in the road for the rotation. The only pitcher I'm concerned about is Nate Robertson, just because of his struggles teamed with a dip in his velocity. Kenny Rogers missed half the season and has only pitched 6 times so far. Let him get going, give him at least 6 more starts before we start crucifying him and demanding he be replaced by Durbin in the rotation. Verlander and Bonderman have been nothing short of great for us all year. Just because they both have a bad start or two doesnt mean they forgot how to pitch or that they suck. Andrew Miller is 22. Leave the kid alone. He's still developing his pitches and he's still physically maturing. He's gonna be a great pitcher. Just becaue he isnt routinely working into the 7th or 8th inning in his starts doesnt mean that he isnt giving us a chance to win in the 5 or 6 innings that he does pitch. He's still learning to pitch and he's having a bit of trouble with his pitch count climbing quickly. 5.5 innings per start (what we're getting out of Miller right now) isnt any worse than what Durbin, Miner or Maroth were giving us...and Miller is actually holding a decent ERA.
I love it when I log onto motownsports and people are suggesting that we should use Zumaya in the rotation now......
My next post will touch on this ridiculous road trip with 17 games in 16 days to finish out July and how that is largely contributing to the Tigers' slump. I also want to touch on the inconsistent umpiring that we've all noticed lately. I'll try to dig up some videos or screenshots to use for that if I can find some. Hopefully the next post will be around the 1st of August.
First things first: The bullpen.
There's three (actually, make that four) reasons the pen is not what we need it to be.
1.) Several spots given to journeymen and career minor leaguers. In all honesty, we've probably gotten the best we could have hoped for to this point out of Bobby Seay, Tim Byrdak, and Chad Durbin. Historically speaking, these guys have been terrible at the major league level. Compare what they've done this year with their major league career numbers since 2004:
Seay-----ERA-----WHIP-----BAA----K----BB----OPS--
2007-----2.96------1.17------.250----17----6-----.660--
Career---4.46------1.39------.261----74---39-----.757--
Byrdak
2007----4.43-------1.57------.264----12---28----.811
Career --6.14-------1.95------.306----86-- 64----.887
Durbin (as a reliever)
2007----4.86-------1.32------.246----11----7-----.765
Career --6.75-------1.73------.286----26---17-----.898
Durbin and Seay are 29, and Byrdak is 33 this year. So it's not particularly probable that they've suddenly developed into the pitchers people expected them to be. What we're likely seeing is a combination of fluke pitching and perhaps some slight improvement. Can we fault these three players for the current state of the bullpen? Absolutely not. In fact, these three have stepped up their games considerably this year and provided some decent outings to this point. Bobby Seay is probably the most effective reliever of the three, both this year and overall, but his numbers are largely influenced by LOOGY situations where he comes in to face left handed hitters only.
However, despite the improvements of these three players over the past year, you're walking on very thin ice to assume that any of them can keep up what they've been doing. In fact, Byrdak has seen his ERA rise over three full runs in his last 6 outings for the Tigers.* Bottom line here is that aside from Bobby Seay vs. lefties, we should not and cannot expect these three to contribute much more to the bullpen this year, and these are the three spots that we should be most concerned about as they will likely get used in many close and late game situations until Rodney and Zumaya return from injury.
(* 4 of those outings came before Byrdak went on the DL, 2 after he came back)
2.) Inexperience with young pitchers.
This is the least troublesome of the reasons for the bullpen struggles, because it is to be expected. Age isnt a particularly big deal, but experience is. Macay McBride, Zach Miner and Jose Capellan have all never spent an entire season on a major league roster. The only thing to worry about here is composure and consistency in relief outings. All three of these pitchers have had several good outings for the Tigers this year, but they've also had some outings where they've been hit hard. Like I said, you cant really dwell on that because it is to be expected. Basically, the way to fix this "problem" is to send one of them down to the minors and bring in that experienced veteran to replace them for the remainder of the year. My vote would be for Zach Miner to return to Toledo (once he comes back from the bereavement list) only because his abilities seem to be suited more for longer outings. He lacks the velocity and the out-pitch that McBride and Capellan have in their arsenals. Since we've seen Miner used increasingly in short outings and late game scenarios, his inability to overpower a hitter and get a key out has been exposed. If Miner were to be used as a reliever, it should be as a strict long relief pitcher. Zach has decent stuff, but its not what you need anywhere else in a pen besides long relief.
3.) Injuries
I see a growing number of Tiger fans starting to loudly complain about the bullpen. Obviously it has been a problem, but look at the missing components. Joel Zumaya and Fernando Rodney. Our two shut-down set up men. It is ridiculous to think that their absence wouldnt negatively affect the bullpen and that we could easily find two pitchers within our own system to sufficiently replace them. Consider where the other contending AL teams would be if they lost their two primary setup men.
What if the Angels didnt have Justin Speier and Scot Sheilds for most of the year, and had to rely on Chris Bootcheck and Darren Oliver to fill those roles? Would they even be ahead of the Mariners right now?
Without the two Rafaels, the Indians would probably be in worse shape than the Tigers are with their bullpen. You could easily argue that the combination of Tom Mastny, Fernando Cabrera, Joe Borowski, and Jason Stanford have been worse than Seay, Byrdak, Grilli and Jones.
The reason Boston is way out in front is because of their pen. Okajima, Papelbon, Delcarmen, Snyder, Lopez, Donnelly and Timlin all have ERAs under 4.00 and the highest WHIP in that group is 1.39. This is why Boston has the best record in baseball and this is why you have to consider them the favorites to win the AL pennant. They are the only team I see that could lose two of their relievers for a long period of time and still keep from falling apart. Kind of strange considering how the bullpen has long been the achilles heel of the Red Sox.
4.) Leyland
The only reason I bring this up is because of his undeniable confidence in Jason Grilli. Jason Grilli is our worst pitcher and hasnt even effectively managed the mop-up role in close to a year. Yet he gets run out there time and time again--lately in close and late game situations--only to not throw strikes, allow inherited runners to score and to have the opponents take and assert a lead. I trust that Jim Leyland knows what he's doing, and I'll give him the benefit of the doubt considering that he doesnt have a lot to work with at this point in the bullpen, but the overuse of Jason Grilli (or the mere fact that Grilli hasnt been released) is directly on Leylands shoulders. This is why a move needs to be made to bring in a reliever or two--it will (hopefully) get rid of Grilli and move either Durbin or Miner into the long relief spot where they are both more suited to pitch in given their repertoires.
The next order of business is determining what reliever(s) Dave Dombrowski should be looking at and what he should be willing to pay to get them.
The tricky part of this is the status of Zumaya and Rodney. If they come back and perform well, suddenly a move didnt need to be made in the first place and we may have given up a piece of the future for a lot less impact than we thought we would need. If Zoom and Rodney dont come back to their top form for a while after returning (which is what I expect), then adding a piece is a good move, but the pen will still be the key weakness of the team.
From what I have read, there are a handful of guys that the Tigers seem interested in acquiring as of the moment:
Chad Cordero
Jon Rauch
Octavio Dotel
Eric Gagne
Akinori Otsuka
David Weathers
All of these guys would likely be nice additions to the pen. The price to get them, however, makes them a bit less desirable. Maybin and Miller are going nowhere, and I suspect Dallas Trahern is mostly untouchable as well. I dont expect the Tigers to send Jair Jurrjens or Gorkys Hernandez anywhere unless it nets us a player like Mark Teixeira. For the purposes of just upgrading the bullpen, I'd be very surprised if we gave up anything more than Brent Clevlen or Jordan Tata. I'd hate to give up Tata because I think he could end up being a #5 for us once Kenny Rogers departs, but it may be a necessary move. Clevlen cant hit, but its possible that other GMs arent completely aware of that yet. With Granderson, Maybin, Raburn, and Ordonez locked up in the organization long term, Clevlen is expendable as far as I'm concerned.
The big rumor surrounding Octavio Dotel is that he'd go to Cleveland for either Ben Francisco or Franklin Gutierrez (both young outfielders). I'd be curious to see what the Royals GM would do if offered Clevlen and Virgil Vasquez/Yorman Bazardo. Dayton Moore seems to follow the Dave Dombrowski formula of trying to fill out his minor league system with hard throwers and rule V picks, as shown by his acquisitions of Joakim Soria and Roman Colon. Clevlen gives the Royals a strong defensive presence in the outfield, which it sorely lacks with Mark Teahen and Emil Brown/Reggie Sanders/Shane Costa at corner outfield.
David Riske could also be a nice addition coming from the Royals, but the Royals will probably want to move Dotel simply because he'll likely net more in return. Starting pitching is what the Royals need, as their rotation falls off a cliff after Gil Meche and Brian Bannister at this point. Scott Elarton was just released, and Jorge De la Rosa and Odalis Perez consistently struggle with their control.
As for the two Nationals and the two Rangers relievers listed above, I'd be a bit disappointed if we went after them. The prices that the GMs are asking are especially steep when you consider the recent injury problems that both Otsuka and Gagne have had, and that Jon Rauch has only been effective in recent weeks. Chad Cordero would be the best option out of those four, in my opinion, as he would be a longer term option for us.
David Weathers is old and awful, and the Astros just dealt Wheeler, so I'm guessing they hang onto Brad Lidge.
Below is a list of a few guys who I would rather see us go after--both because the price is low, and because with Leylands allegiance to Todd Jones, we dont need a current closer.
Chad Bradford
Kiko Calero
Damaso Marte
Vinnie Chulk
Russ Springer
Jeremy Accardo
Saul Rivera
None of those are big time names, but adding two of them could cost us very little and, in replacing Grilli and Byrdak, could be quite a significant upgrade.
Last on the agenda, the starting pitching staff and its recent troubles.
I firmly believe that this is nothing more than a minor bump in the road for the rotation. The only pitcher I'm concerned about is Nate Robertson, just because of his struggles teamed with a dip in his velocity. Kenny Rogers missed half the season and has only pitched 6 times so far. Let him get going, give him at least 6 more starts before we start crucifying him and demanding he be replaced by Durbin in the rotation. Verlander and Bonderman have been nothing short of great for us all year. Just because they both have a bad start or two doesnt mean they forgot how to pitch or that they suck. Andrew Miller is 22. Leave the kid alone. He's still developing his pitches and he's still physically maturing. He's gonna be a great pitcher. Just becaue he isnt routinely working into the 7th or 8th inning in his starts doesnt mean that he isnt giving us a chance to win in the 5 or 6 innings that he does pitch. He's still learning to pitch and he's having a bit of trouble with his pitch count climbing quickly. 5.5 innings per start (what we're getting out of Miller right now) isnt any worse than what Durbin, Miner or Maroth were giving us...and Miller is actually holding a decent ERA.
I love it when I log onto motownsports and people are suggesting that we should use Zumaya in the rotation now......
My next post will touch on this ridiculous road trip with 17 games in 16 days to finish out July and how that is largely contributing to the Tigers' slump. I also want to touch on the inconsistent umpiring that we've all noticed lately. I'll try to dig up some videos or screenshots to use for that if I can find some. Hopefully the next post will be around the 1st of August.
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