7-29-07 It's A Bad Bad Bad Bad Bullpen

Ok, so after calming down a bit after another bullpen meltdown, I'm ready to speak with a level head.

First things first: The bullpen.

There's three (actually, make that four) reasons the pen is not what we need it to be.

1.) Several spots given to journeymen and career minor leaguers. In all honesty, we've probably gotten the best we could have hoped for to this point out of Bobby Seay, Tim Byrdak, and Chad Durbin. Historically speaking, these guys have been terrible at the major league level. Compare what they've done this year with their major league career numbers since 2004:

Seay-----ERA-----WHIP-----BAA----K----BB----OPS--
2007-----2.96------1.17------.250----17----6-----.660--
Career---4.46------1.39------.261----74---39-----.757--

Byrdak
2007----4.43-------1.57------.264----12---28----.811
Career --6.14-------1.95------.306----86-- 64----.887

Durbin (as a reliever)
2007----4.86-------1.32------.246----11----7-----.765
Career --6.75-------1.73------.286----26---17-----.898

Durbin and Seay are 29, and Byrdak is 33 this year. So it's not particularly probable that they've suddenly developed into the pitchers people expected them to be. What we're likely seeing is a combination of fluke pitching and perhaps some slight improvement. Can we fault these three players for the current state of the bullpen? Absolutely not. In fact, these three have stepped up their games considerably this year and provided some decent outings to this point. Bobby Seay is probably the most effective reliever of the three, both this year and overall, but his numbers are largely influenced by LOOGY situations where he comes in to face left handed hitters only.

However, despite the improvements of these three players over the past year, you're walking on very thin ice to assume that any of them can keep up what they've been doing. In fact, Byrdak has seen his ERA rise over three full runs in his last 6 outings for the Tigers.* Bottom line here is that aside from Bobby Seay vs. lefties, we should not and cannot expect these three to contribute much more to the bullpen this year, and these are the three spots that we should be most concerned about as they will likely get used in many close and late game situations until Rodney and Zumaya return from injury.

(* 4 of those outings came before Byrdak went on the DL, 2 after he came back)

2.) Inexperience with young pitchers.

This is the least troublesome of the reasons for the bullpen struggles, because it is to be expected. Age isnt a particularly big deal, but experience is. Macay McBride, Zach Miner and Jose Capellan have all never spent an entire season on a major league roster. The only thing to worry about here is composure and consistency in relief outings. All three of these pitchers have had several good outings for the Tigers this year, but they've also had some outings where they've been hit hard. Like I said, you cant really dwell on that because it is to be expected. Basically, the way to fix this "problem" is to send one of them down to the minors and bring in that experienced veteran to replace them for the remainder of the year. My vote would be for Zach Miner to return to Toledo (once he comes back from the bereavement list) only because his abilities seem to be suited more for longer outings. He lacks the velocity and the out-pitch that McBride and Capellan have in their arsenals. Since we've seen Miner used increasingly in short outings and late game scenarios, his inability to overpower a hitter and get a key out has been exposed. If Miner were to be used as a reliever, it should be as a strict long relief pitcher. Zach has decent stuff, but its not what you need anywhere else in a pen besides long relief.

3.) Injuries

I see a growing number of Tiger fans starting to loudly complain about the bullpen. Obviously it has been a problem, but look at the missing components. Joel Zumaya and Fernando Rodney. Our two shut-down set up men. It is ridiculous to think that their absence wouldnt negatively affect the bullpen and that we could easily find two pitchers within our own system to sufficiently replace them. Consider where the other contending AL teams would be if they lost their two primary setup men.

What if the Angels didnt have Justin Speier and Scot Sheilds for most of the year, and had to rely on Chris Bootcheck and Darren Oliver to fill those roles? Would they even be ahead of the Mariners right now?

Without the two Rafaels, the Indians would probably be in worse shape than the Tigers are with their bullpen. You could easily argue that the combination of Tom Mastny, Fernando Cabrera, Joe Borowski, and Jason Stanford have been worse than Seay, Byrdak, Grilli and Jones.

The reason Boston is way out in front is because of their pen. Okajima, Papelbon, Delcarmen, Snyder, Lopez, Donnelly and Timlin all have ERAs under 4.00 and the highest WHIP in that group is 1.39. This is why Boston has the best record in baseball and this is why you have to consider them the favorites to win the AL pennant. They are the only team I see that could lose two of their relievers for a long period of time and still keep from falling apart. Kind of strange considering how the bullpen has long been the achilles heel of the Red Sox.


4.) Leyland

The only reason I bring this up is because of his undeniable confidence in Jason Grilli. Jason Grilli is our worst pitcher and hasnt even effectively managed the mop-up role in close to a year. Yet he gets run out there time and time again--lately in close and late game situations--only to not throw strikes, allow inherited runners to score and to have the opponents take and assert a lead. I trust that Jim Leyland knows what he's doing, and I'll give him the benefit of the doubt considering that he doesnt have a lot to work with at this point in the bullpen, but the overuse of Jason Grilli (or the mere fact that Grilli hasnt been released) is directly on Leylands shoulders. This is why a move needs to be made to bring in a reliever or two--it will (hopefully) get rid of Grilli and move either Durbin or Miner into the long relief spot where they are both more suited to pitch in given their repertoires.




The next order of business is determining what reliever(s) Dave Dombrowski should be looking at and what he should be willing to pay to get them.

The tricky part of this is the status of Zumaya and Rodney. If they come back and perform well, suddenly a move didnt need to be made in the first place and we may have given up a piece of the future for a lot less impact than we thought we would need. If Zoom and Rodney dont come back to their top form for a while after returning (which is what I expect), then adding a piece is a good move, but the pen will still be the key weakness of the team.

From what I have read, there are a handful of guys that the Tigers seem interested in acquiring as of the moment:

Chad Cordero
Jon Rauch
Octavio Dotel
Eric Gagne
Akinori Otsuka
David Weathers

All of these guys would likely be nice additions to the pen. The price to get them, however, makes them a bit less desirable. Maybin and Miller are going nowhere, and I suspect Dallas Trahern is mostly untouchable as well. I dont expect the Tigers to send Jair Jurrjens or Gorkys Hernandez anywhere unless it nets us a player like Mark Teixeira. For the purposes of just upgrading the bullpen, I'd be very surprised if we gave up anything more than Brent Clevlen or Jordan Tata. I'd hate to give up Tata because I think he could end up being a #5 for us once Kenny Rogers departs, but it may be a necessary move. Clevlen cant hit, but its possible that other GMs arent completely aware of that yet. With Granderson, Maybin, Raburn, and Ordonez locked up in the organization long term, Clevlen is expendable as far as I'm concerned.

The big rumor surrounding Octavio Dotel is that he'd go to Cleveland for either Ben Francisco or Franklin Gutierrez (both young outfielders). I'd be curious to see what the Royals GM would do if offered Clevlen and Virgil Vasquez/Yorman Bazardo. Dayton Moore seems to follow the Dave Dombrowski formula of trying to fill out his minor league system with hard throwers and rule V picks, as shown by his acquisitions of Joakim Soria and Roman Colon. Clevlen gives the Royals a strong defensive presence in the outfield, which it sorely lacks with Mark Teahen and Emil Brown/Reggie Sanders/Shane Costa at corner outfield.

David Riske could also be a nice addition coming from the Royals, but the Royals will probably want to move Dotel simply because he'll likely net more in return. Starting pitching is what the Royals need, as their rotation falls off a cliff after Gil Meche and Brian Bannister at this point. Scott Elarton was just released, and Jorge De la Rosa and Odalis Perez consistently struggle with their control.

As for the two Nationals and the two Rangers relievers listed above, I'd be a bit disappointed if we went after them. The prices that the GMs are asking are especially steep when you consider the recent injury problems that both Otsuka and Gagne have had, and that Jon Rauch has only been effective in recent weeks. Chad Cordero would be the best option out of those four, in my opinion, as he would be a longer term option for us.

David Weathers is old and awful, and the Astros just dealt Wheeler, so I'm guessing they hang onto Brad Lidge.

Below is a list of a few guys who I would rather see us go after--both because the price is low, and because with Leylands allegiance to Todd Jones, we dont need a current closer.

Chad Bradford
Kiko Calero
Damaso Marte
Vinnie Chulk
Russ Springer
Jeremy Accardo
Saul Rivera

None of those are big time names, but adding two of them could cost us very little and, in replacing Grilli and Byrdak, could be quite a significant upgrade.





Last on the agenda, the starting pitching staff and its recent troubles.


I firmly believe that this is nothing more than a minor bump in the road for the rotation. The only pitcher I'm concerned about is Nate Robertson, just because of his struggles teamed with a dip in his velocity. Kenny Rogers missed half the season and has only pitched 6 times so far. Let him get going, give him at least 6 more starts before we start crucifying him and demanding he be replaced by Durbin in the rotation. Verlander and Bonderman have been nothing short of great for us all year. Just because they both have a bad start or two doesnt mean they forgot how to pitch or that they suck. Andrew Miller is 22. Leave the kid alone. He's still developing his pitches and he's still physically maturing. He's gonna be a great pitcher. Just becaue he isnt routinely working into the 7th or 8th inning in his starts doesnt mean that he isnt giving us a chance to win in the 5 or 6 innings that he does pitch. He's still learning to pitch and he's having a bit of trouble with his pitch count climbing quickly. 5.5 innings per start (what we're getting out of Miller right now) isnt any worse than what Durbin, Miner or Maroth were giving us...and Miller is actually holding a decent ERA.

I love it when I log onto motownsports and people are suggesting that we should use Zumaya in the rotation now......


My next post will touch on this ridiculous road trip with 17 games in 16 days to finish out July and how that is largely contributing to the Tigers' slump. I also want to touch on the inconsistent umpiring that we've all noticed lately. I'll try to dig up some videos or screenshots to use for that if I can find some. Hopefully the next post will be around the 1st of August.