7-30-07 Trading Deadline/Pitching Staff analysis

After suffering through the last two series against the White Sox and the Angels, it became brutally obvious that the Tigers need both some rest and pitching depth. We've lost 4 straight and 6 of our last 7 games....all of which can be attributed to pitching problems. Lets take a moment to analyze what we have.

Starting Pitchers

Regardless of if the Indians surpass us and take the division lead, Justin Verlander and Jeremy Bonderman arent going anywhere. We've really needed those two to step up and log some quality starts lately and it just hasnt happened. Their command has been off, but you also have to credit the opposing offenses for taking advantage of that. We've seen several games in the careers of Bonderman and Verlander where they havent been especially sharp, but they've managed to get the opposition to create outs on their own. This hasnt been the case lately. But it is ridiculous to think that both of these two will not regain their form and pitch well for us down the stretch. If they cant do that, then I'd put a significant portion of the blame on Jim Leyland and Chuck Hernandez. They're too good to be bad for a long period of time.

So lets first look at Bonderman, who just got completely lit up tonight. His first inning struggles are well documented (an ERA around 9.20 this year in the first inning), but its been his performances in the ensuing innings that have kept us in games and won us games.

A look at Bonderman's 2007 splits and where he struggles:

Problems:

First Innings. Opponents are hitting .356 with an alarming .701 slugging percentage--which pans out to a 1.105 OPS. So a first inning for Bonderman is like facing Barry Bonds in each at bat. We've speculated and speculated as to what the problem is with Bonderman and the first innings, but without inside knowledge, it's hard to say. You'd think it's either a real mental issue (overanxious, lack of focus, etc.) but it could be that his warm-up routine isnt working for him.

What is particularly surprising when you take into account his first inning struggles is the pitch breakdown. Check out what opponents do to him in various pitch increments:

Pitches 01-15: .375/.426/.821/1.248
Pitches 16-30: .211/.241/.329/.569
Pitches 31-45: .253/.298/.291/.589
Pitches 46-60: .253/.305/.360/.665
Pitches 61-75: .174/.193/.302/.496
Pitches 76-90: .209/.254/.284/.537
Pitches 91-105: .356/.383/.667/1.050

Without question, the most effective way to use Jeremy Bonderman is to have him get through those first 15 pitches with as minimal damage as possible--and then let him work his magic. Its very strange at how quickly he becomes effective after the first 15 pitches and continues that effectiveness until he is well into 90 pitches. Again, there obviously isnt an ability problem, but he lacks sharpness coming out of the gate. You'll notice that not only is the batting average against very high, but the on base percentage is sky high as well. He has walked more batters in the first inning than in any other inning this year.


Bases Empty.

Now Bonderman does overall pitch better with the bases empty, as can probably be said about most pitchers. The alarming thing is that he has allowed 11 solo homeruns already this year and 14 doubles with the bases empty. There's an interesting split to look at here:

Bases empty: .234/.274/.407/.681 ----- 11 HRA, 19 Doubles, 16 Walks

Runners On: .283/.321/.397/.718 ----- 4 HRA, 9 Doubles, 10 Walks

So when runners are on, opponents are hitting, but not for any power. When the bases are empty, opponents arent hitting nearly as frequently, but for a considerable amount more power.
This is perhaps another scenario that would lead you to believe that Bonderman loses focus at times. He seems much more likely to serve up a meatball if he doesnt have to worry about any baserunners, which is especially strange considering the amount of flack Bonderman takes for not being able to combat the baserunners by holding them close or keeping them from getting good reads and jumps off of him.

At this point, I'd conclude that while Bonderman is improving each year and his stuff is among the tops in the league, it looks like the thing that he'll have to do to really be a definite top 10 pitcher in the AL is to clear some mental hurdles. Unfortunately, thats not something that is always easy for an individual to do--on or off the field.


Justin Verlander is the pitcher that we should by far be the least concerned about. Even with a string of a couple of poorer performances lately, his splits are much better than Bondermans all around. In no inning do opponents hit over .300, Slug over .450, or have an OPS over .800. This tells us that he is very good at minimizing damage regardless of the situation. But....BUT...look at this:

Pitches 1-15: .278/.371/.426/.797

Obviously not nearly as bad as Bonderman's split, but still considerably higher than in any other pitch range or inning. To a certain degree, I'm guessing that this may be more than just a personal problem for these two pitchers. I'd like to suggest that either the mental preparation or the physical preparation is not what it needs to be in the moments before a game. Both are 24 years old, so its certainly plausible that its just them being overly amped up. However, if I'm noticing this, then no doubt coaches are as well. Once this team gets out of its current funk and starts playing at the level its capable of, then I think it would be an interesting experiment to see if some sort of meditation or calming techniques would positively effect either Jeremy or Justin for their initial game performances.



But like I said at the beginning, we can speculate as to what the problem is and what should be done about it, but with how these two have pitched over the last two years, it's not really anything more than a minor annoyance to us fans.



The other three spots in the rotation are the keys to the stretch run. Nate Robertson has suffered from a tired arm and has not been nearly as effective as Tiger fans have grown used to. Kenny Rogers just went on the DL again. Andrew Miller being in his first full year of pro ball is a question mark in many areas.

Starting with Nate Robertson, I'd have to think that either the problem with him has not been diagnosed yet, or that the full story hasnt been released to us. Except for April, Nate has not had a month where he has had an ERA under 5.50 and he has not had a month where opponents havent hit .290+ against him. What is scary is that Nate typically is strong in the first three months of the season, but then falters in July, August and September. And thats when he's healthy. Since the drop-off in effectiveness has already hit harder than it ever has, I'm not optimistic that Nate is going to be an effective starter for us throughout the rest of the year. Nate is considered the bulldog of the staff because even if he's struggling, he's able to pitch consistently and he's tough on left handers. If he cant be consistently average as a starter, then he's of very little use to a contending team. Even though I'd still believe that Nate could be an excellent back of the rotation pitcher for the Tigers for several more years, perhaps the time has come to trade him. Only issue is that if we do send Nate packing, his spot in the rotation isnt going to be easy to fill with the type of pitcher that we need for this stretch run. I'll get into that a little later.


Kenny Rogers has just had a tough year. I really cant fault him for any struggles he has had on the field. Between a serious arm problem which he had to have surgery on in spring training to this new injury, Kenny's year is pretty much shot. At this point the earliest he'd return is mid-August. Much like Zumaya and Rodney, we cant assume he's going to be effective when he returns--and assuming he'll be at 100% health would also be a stretch. This team needs Kenny Rogers both on the field and in the clubhouse. With this injury, there's pretty much no way he's going to be traded. The Tigers are just going to have to ride it out with Kenny and see if he can bounce back. But between the struggles of Nate and the health problems that Kenny has run into, suddenly our once dominant rotation becomes a bit of a weakness. Since there's not much we can do about Rogers' situation at this point, I'm not concerned about the future of Kenny Rogers as a Tiger. That can be worked out in the off-season. It may work out as an advantage because he may take a big pay cut because of his age and new injury history.


I already spent some time documenting Andrew Miller and my thoughts on him in my previous post. As a #4 or #5 starter for us right now, he isnt hurting the team. Now that he's being bumped up to a #3 for the time being, it has me more concerned. Miller belongs in the big leagues right now, but putting too much pressure on him to perform could hurt him. He needs to just go out there and pitch. Each outing should be a learning experience for him rather than an expected 7+ inning quality start. He has the stuff to give us that, but to expect it from a 22 year old rookie is too much. I'm comfortable with him staying in the rotation for the rest of the year (provided he doesnt completely go off the deep end performance wise), but I dont want to rely on him to be a key component in the playoff run.


Now the question becomes what to do to 'fix' our rotation for the rest of the year. We've given Virgil Vasquez two starts and he has shown that he's still a little ways away from being rotation worthy. I like Vasquez, but in watching his two starts at the big league level, he strikes me as a guy who could turn into a right handed Mike Maroth. He's good, but only if he has his command and if he's getting the corners for strikes. Otherwise he'll end up leaving pitches over the plate and he'll get hit hard. As a September call-up, Vasquez would be good for a spot start or some long relief in the bullpen, but thats all I'd try with him.

Jordan Tata is getting the call up to fill Kenny Rogers' spot in the rotation, at least for this next start. This could be a diamond in the rough for us, and it will be very interesting to see how Tata performs and if he demonstrates usefulness at the big league level. He certainly did at the beginning of 2006 when he was an effective reliever for a short stint. His numbers at Toledo are very strong, and if Tata can come out and pitch well for a couple starts in this call-up, I might just stick with him for a while. We can always fall back on Chad Durbin to take this spot in the rotation if we need him to, but even with the slide the Tigers have been on it might not be a bad idea to give Tata an extended look.

There's not much else in our system that can step up into the rotation. Bazardo has been up and down for the Hens all year. I was impressed a little bit with what he showed in his call-up earlier, but I suspect his best effort in an MLB rotation would be no better than what Nate Robertson is already giving us in his struggles. Jair Jurrjens is still a ways off. And we're not going to be using Dennis Tankersley or Ron Chiavacci unless everyone on our staff gets injured.

The other option--which I expect to happen as of this moment--is to trade for a veteran starter. We saw what having an experienced pitcher can do with Kenny Rogers last year. Without Rogers and with a struggling Robertson, a veteran arm with a relaxed attitude could be just what the doctor ordered to help get the starters back on track. I havent read any particular rumors linking a starter to the Tigers, but I'd wager Dave Dombrowski is at least looking into it somewhat. He has a pretty daunting task at the moment as the bullpen definitely needs an addition and the left field position hasnt been sorted out just yet.

According to the MLB4U rumor collection, here's what they're saying is available in terms of starting pitching (and what the teams may want in return):

-Dontrelle Willis. The price on him is undoubtedly going to be high, and I dont think his electric attitude makes a good fit at the moment, although it would be nice to acquire him in the future.

-Joe Blanton. Apparently the price on him is exceedingly high, and perhaps rightfully so. He's been with the A's on their playoff runs the last couple years, so he could bring a big boost. But I dont think we have what the A's are looking for, unless they would want some sort of package deal with several prospects. Not many of our players fit the Billy Beane mold though.

-Matt Morris. This could be a nice fit. Morris isnt the pitcher he was a few years back, but he's still effective and not too old. I dont know how he'd translate into the American League though. The Giants will undoubtedly be sellers and are probably going to look for younger position players, which the Tigers really dont have a lot of.

-Shawn Chacon. Meh. Might not be a bad bullpen pickup.



And thats really about it......so it doesnt look like this situation is going to be resolved with any ease. If Dave Dombrowski can pull something off to help both the rotation and the bullpen, it will further assert my feeling that he is the best GM in baseball. But for the moment, we just may have to hope and pray that Jordan Tata immediately asserts himself as an answer.


I know I said I was gonna whine and complain about the umpires, but that is gonna have to take a backseat in all Tigers discussions until the teams play turns around. There's just too much else to focus on and to be concerned about for me to waste energy on calling out the umpires for a poor performance over the last week (and several times throughout the season).

Hopefully by the next time I make a post, there will be some new trade deadline developments to discuss. Personally, I'm hoping all the talk about Al Reyes and Clint Barmes turns out to be bunk, as I dont see either of them being improvements for us now or in the future. Chad Cordero tops my wish list right now, with the Joe Koshansky/Ian Stewart rumor being a close second.